The US-Israel war with Iran pushed the world into the worst energy crisis in its history, slashing oil production and sending prices soaring. Those much higher prices have generated windfall profits for companies operating outside the Persian Gulf, especially in the United States, which has been selling much more energy than usual.
But within the Persian Gulf the story is much more complicated. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck between the Gulf and the rest of the world, has forced the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and other countries to cut production and exports. Some are suffering more than others. Those that can use pipelines to divert their oil to ports away from the strait have fared much better than countries that do not have those options.
This energy crisis affects everyone, but not uniformly. The New York Times analyzed months of export and price data from S&P Global Energy Commodities at Sea and Argus Media to assess how much some of the world’s biggest oil producers have been selling and at what price. The analysis focused specifically on oil and related products exported by sea, which have been most affected by the closure of the strait.
Understanding who wins and who loses in that group helps explain why some countries are better positioned to withstand the economic consequences of this war. It also provides clues about the future. If the strait is no longer a reliable conduit, today’s winners will likely continue to dominate. If the strait reopens, countries’ ability to recover will depend on how painful the closure was for them.
“The longer the strait remains closed, those who have benefited from this will continue to gain,” said Jim Burkhard, who heads global oil research for S&P Global Energy. “Those who are faced with this, it could become more serious for them.”
USA
The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, cushioning the economic blow of a war it and Israel started. At the end of March, U.S. companies were exporting far more oil, diesel and other fuels than normal. That helped offset a small portion of the energy the world has lost and kept prices from rising even further.
But unlike many other major oil producers, the United States does not have a state oil company. That means big oil companies are receiving the vast majority of this additional revenue. So far, there are few signs they will reinvest those profits to drill more or hire more workers. That means there is unlikely to be a major war-related economic boom in Texas, New Mexico and other oil-producing states.
Instead, much of that additional income is likely to benefit investors in the form of higher share prices and dividends. Many state governments will also earn more because they will receive higher tax and royalty payments, as will landowners who have allowed oil drilling on their properties.
Russia
Russia has been another big beneficiary, not because it is selling more oil, but because it is paid more for its oil. The main reason is that the war has caused oil prices to skyrocket around the world. The United States also temporarily lifted sanctions on some Russian oil in March, an abrupt policy change that likely helped Russia receive more for its oil than it would have otherwise. In early April, for example, the price of Russian oil sold in the Gulf of Finland approached $120 a barrel, up from $41 before the war. That said, Ukraine has sought to limit Russia’s ability to capitalize on higher prices by attacking the country’s oil infrastructure.
Persian Gulf
Most producers in the Persian Gulf have not been so lucky. If anything, the war has underlined the importance of having export outlets other than the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have done relatively well because they invested years ago in pipelines surrounding the strait, an expensive form of insurance that is paying off. Saudi Arabia’s exports fell by more than 150 million barrels during the war, compared with the previous year, but its revenue from those sales increased by about $9.2 billion.
Iran, which has been controlling access to the strait, also fared relatively well until mid-April. But the country’s exports plummeted after the United States imposed a naval blockade against ships linked to Iran, further straining the country’s economy.
Neighboring countries that have no control over the strait or alternative export routes have been especially affected. Among them are Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar.
Officials in some Gulf countries have begun exploring the possibility of building or expanding oil pipelines that bypass the strait. But such projects are likely to cost billions of dollars and take years to complete. For the foreseeable future, these countries will likely remain at the mercy of whoever exercises control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Methodology
The New York Times analyzed weekly export data from S&P Global Energy Commodities at Sea that showed seaborne shipments of crude oil and a variety of related products, from gasoline and diesel to naphtha, which is often used to make plastic. The Times compared those export volumes with price data from Argus Media, using regional benchmarks such as Brent, a price for oil produced in the North Sea in Europe, and Urals, the main Russian price.
The Times also estimated revenue from the sale of exported petroleum products. It grouped products into broad categories, using prices for what the industry calls “gasoil,” a category that includes diesel and heating oil, to estimate the value of certain products and crude oil prices for others, in part because it was not always obvious which fuels were exported.
To analyze estimated exports and revenues, The Times reviewed data from February 28, the day the war began, to May 8, 2026, as well as the comparable period a year earlier: March 1 to May 9, 2025.
Aaron Krolik contributed with reports.
