Recent advances in quantum computing have reignited a long-standing concern about bitcoin .
A sufficiently powerful and cryptographically relevant quantum computer could, in theory, break the signatures of bitcoin’s elliptic curve, exposing coins with visible public keys, particularly early Satoshi-era wallets, according to bitcoin analyst James Check.
Quantum pessimists warn that this would trigger an avalanche of supply and crash the market. The numbers suggest otherwise.
The threat of quantum computing is not in doubt.
Approximately 1.7 million BTC are located in Satoshi-era addresses that could be vulnerable in such a scenario. That equates to about $145 billion at current prices in potential selling pressure, which sounds catastrophic, but is actually manageable.
During bull markets, long-term holders (investors who have held bitcoins for at least 155 days) routinely distribute between 10,000 and 30,000 BTC per day. At that rate, the entire Satoshi-era offering is roughly equivalent to two to three months of typical profit-taking. In the most recent bear market, over 2.3 million BTC changed hands in a single quarter, surpassing the entire quantum “target,” without any systemic collapse.
Furthermore, monthly foreign exchange inflows are approaching 850,000 BTC. Derivatives markets cycle through notional volumes equivalent to the entire stock of Satoshi every few days. What seems massive in isolation becomes relatively common when compared to bitcoin’s existing liquidity and turnover.
A sudden, concentrated release would still be important. According to Check, it would likely boost volatility and could trigger a prolonged slowdown. But even that scenario involves economically irrational behavior. Any actor able to access such a treasure would be incentivized to distribute it gradually, likely hedging through derivatives to minimize slippage and maximize returns.
Bitcoin markets routinely absorb supply on the same order of magnitude as P2PK-era currencies. The term is measured in months, not years.
The real problem is not mechanical sales pressure. It is governance. The biggest problem is potentially freezing the Satoshi coins, via BIP-361, and then letting everything play out as it should.
