Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics are showing their most constructive signals since early February, but underlying seller behavior and derivatives positioning suggest the path to new highs will not be easy, Bitfinex shared in an analyst note to CoinDesk on Thursday.
Long-term holders, whose bitcoin holdings have increased by 300% since the end of 2025 to almost 4 million tokens, have started to make $180 million in profits per day since BTC rose to the level of over $82,000 on May 11 before falling from $81,000 to $79,000 on Thursday.
“It is a moderate amount compared to past cycles and suggests that current sales are under control,” they said, explaining that the concern lies in daily realized losses, which they said still average $479 million. “In calmer periods, this figure is close to $200 million. Until losses fall to the $200 million range, the chain recovery will not be fully confirmed.”
The gamma trap
This cautious outlook is supported by a “gamma trap” identified in the derivatives market. Glassnode data shows nearly $2 billion in short gamma options positions clustered around the $82,000 strike price. As bitcoin trades within this zone, market makers are forced to cover their positions, initially amplifying volatility and potentially “compressing” the price towards $82,000, Bitfinex said in its note.
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, noted that this gamma concentration creates a misleading environment. “Dealer covering can accelerate the price towards that level, but once the pressure runs out, the same positioning can suppress momentum and act as resistance,” Fernandes told CoinDesk. “In other words, gamma is currently amplifying the movement, not necessarily validating it.”
While on-chain data shows improvement, the analyst said, “corporate buyers, on the other hand, have remained silent. Major players bought very few bitcoins last week, with an 80% drop in purchase volume compared to last month.”
An important red flag flies
Fernandes points out the divergence between prices and institutional flows as an important warning sign. Despite the rally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded an outflow of $635 million on May 13, the largest single-day outflow since January.
Mati Greenspan, market analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, noted that the current “cost-based battleground” between $79,000 and $85,000 looks more like a transition zone than a ceiling.
Beyond the technical aspects, the broader economic picture remains an obstacle. On May 13, the US Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve amid rising inflation of 3.8%. Fernandes noted that the market is now pricing in a “higher for longer” reality.
“Kevin Warsh has already set expectations that a rate cut is unlikely this year; there may even be a rate hike,” Fernandes said. “I just don’t see BTC reaching a new ATH this year unless something radically changes geopolitically.”
Given the high realized losses and lack of corporate support, which saw an 80% drop in buying volume last week, Bitfinex analysts said they anticipate a quick jump to the $82,000 to $84,000 range, followed by a “neutralization period.”
Fernandes concluded that the current structure appears to be an “incomplete capitulation.” Until the market can erase the $479 million in daily realized losses and regain institutional conviction, the $85,000 level will remain the primary “fair value battleground” of the cycle.
