bitcoin Funding rates are sending one of the most bearish positioning signals in years, even as spot prices continue to rise.
Funding rates have been hovering around -4% annualized, said James Aitchison, founder and CIO of Caerus Global, during a panel at Consensus Miami 2026. That means long positions are being paid out to maintain exposure, a rare setup that points to strong short positioning.
“Long positions are getting paid out, which is quite rare,” Aitchison said. “In 30 days, the lowest level in this decade.”
The setup reflects a broader disconnect from derivatives. Bitcoin funding rates hit their most negative levels since 2023 in April, even as BTC surpassed $75,000 at the time. Aitchison said similar conditions have historically preceded positive returns for periods of 30 to 365 days.
Bitcoin has recovered from around $60,000 to the low $80,000s at the time of writing. The move has forced traders to re-evaluate whether old crypto-native signals still work in a market increasingly shaped by ETFs, basis trading and Wall Street distribution.
Spot demand for bitcoin ETFs has held up during the drawdown. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have raised $1.6 billion so far this month, even as short-term holders sold.
That resilience has made ETF holders central to the current market structure. Dan Blackmore, chief commercial officer at Glassnode, said bitcoin is moving into a new regime as volatility drops and allocations become more strategic.
“We are witnessing the early beginnings of the Wall Street machine and its impact on the cryptocurrency market,” Backmore said.
Options are accelerating that change. IBIT options open interest surpassed Deribit in April, pointing to a migration of bitcoin derivatives activity to regulated venues in the United States. Morgan Stanley’s bitcoin ETF launched last month, adding another major wealth management platform to the market.
Panelists were divided on whether the four-year cycle still matters. Michael Terpin, author of “Bitcoin Supercycle,” said bitcoin could still trade lower before a larger supply shock in 2028-2029. Others argued that the halving cycle is losing steam as bitcoin becomes a TradFi asset.
The year-end calls reflected the division. Terpin and Backmore said Bitcoin may not reach a new high this year. Cole Kennelly, founder of Volmex Labs, said $250,000 is possible. Aitchison said $150,000 is a reasonable target if rate cuts return.
