- Companies with high ROI are laying off at the same rate as companies with low ROI
- The best returns come from investing in human skills and jobs.
- Net job creation could occur as early as 2020-2029
Four in five organizations that have tested or deployed autonomous AI agents have also reported workforce reductions, new Gartner research says; However, the research giant fails to link layoffs and business autonomy with significant improvements in return on investment.
According to Gartner, companies with higher ROI from autonomous AI reduced staff at about the same rate as companies with low or negative returns, implying that agent AI is not a key driver of job reductions, but rather other factors are at play.
As a result, analysts argue that cutting jobs may free up budget, but does not create business value in itself.
After all, AI and job cuts are not so closely related
In fact, it is clear from the analysis that companies that invest in human workforces are seeing the best returns, including those that invest in employee skills, new operational roles, human supervision and governance.
For Gartner, an autonomous, agent-optimal enterprise is “human-powered” rather than “human-less.”
“Organizations that improve ROI are not those that eliminate the need for people, but those that amplify them by investing more aggressively in skills, roles and operating models that enable humans to guide and scale autonomous systems,” explained distinguished vice analyst Helen Poitevin.
Looking ahead, projected spending on AI agents is increasing and is expected to reach $206.5 billion in 2026, up from $86.4 billion the previous year, before rising to $376.3 billion in 2027.
But even with heavy investment in autonomous technology and continued layoffs, Gartner still projects net job creation for 2028-2029.
“In the long term, autonomous companies will create more work for humans, not less,” Poitevin concluded.
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