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Their backs are against the wall. It’s life or death. Win or go home. Anything can happen. Whatever your favorite saying is for Game 7, it applies here. The Philadelphia 76ers, a team that barely made the postseason, have brought the second-seeded Boston Celtics to the brink of elimination. It’s Game 7, so we have to bet on it; those are the rules.
Philadelphia has already won two games in Boston and now needs to win three of four in the series to advance. In the last two games, the 76ers have looked great. They have limited the Celtics to just 97 points in Game 5 and 93 points in Game 6.
Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers watches during the Eastern Conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts, on May 14, 2023. (Brian Babineau/NBAE/Getty Images)
In fact, in their three wins, the 76ers have held the Celtics under 100 points. They’re not exactly known for their defense, but it certainly seems like that’s where their success is this postseason.
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In attack, the team looks very sharp. Tyrese Maxey has been able to get to his spots and has shot the ball very well in this series. VJ Edgecombe looked like a veteran rather than a rookie. The return of Joel Embiid has been a shot in the arm for the team, and Paul George has been very effective.
I won’t say Philadelphia has been too good from deep, which is actually a very good indicator that they can win Game 7.
The Celtics, in losses, have obviously shot poorly, but it is very surprising how bad they have been. They shot just 29% from deep in Game 6, and their free throws were just 9 of 16. Jaylen Brown, usually very reliable, was just 2 of 6 from the charity stripe. The Celtics’ starters combined to score just 46 points. Most of these matches have been very one-sided, with the winning team dominating. Only one game was decided by 10 points or less.
Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics reacts after defeating the Miami Heat 104-103 in game six of the Eastern Conference Finals at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida, on May 27, 2023. (Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
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Boston is one of those teams that tends to live and die in threes, and unfortunately for their fans, they’ve been dying the last two games. You’d like to assume that returning home will give them a chance to return to some familiar lines of sight.
Furthermore, it is not normal for the team to be fighting like this for so long. The key to their success might not be Brown or Jayson Tatum, but rather it may be Derrick White, who has underperformed in this series. He looked a little better in the Game 6 loss, scoring 11 points, shooting 50% from deep and recording three steals.
There are two paths to this game, and I think the spread and total are extremely correlated in this game. First, for the 76ers to win the game, they will need to keep the Celtics’ scoring in check again. Keeping Boston under 100 points again seems like a big challenge. But, if this game falls apart, the 76ers will cover the spread.
A general view of the TD Garden before the game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics during Game 1 of Round 2 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs on May 1, 2023, in Boston, Mass. (David Dow/NBAE/Getty Images)
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If the game ends, the Celtics will win and I imagine it will be a spectacular game. Boston has the ability to destroy teams. The Celtics have played four Game 7 games since 2022. They crushed the Bucks 109-81, beat the Heat 100-96, dominated the 76ers 112-88 and lost the most recent to the Heat in 2023, 103-84. The Celtics finished 3-1 with two dominant wins.
The only loss was ugly and at home against the Heat. It’s hard to believe the Celtics will lose three of four at home, but the 76ers look great. I’m dismissing the spread, but I think the Celtics cover it. I also think this game is over. 206.5 is too low a total and I hope at least one of these teams reaches 110 points.
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