On Wednesday, bitcoin (BTC) briefly surpassed $100,000 for the fourth time, and trader sentiment shifted from fear to greed as the price fluctuates between $90,000 and the six-figure level.
The largest cryptocurrency may require several attempts to break $100,000, as previous CoinDesk research showed.
Since hitting an all-time high of around $108,000 on December 17, bitcoin has posted a series of lower highs, just as it did during the seven-month consolidation of 2024.
However, the $90,000 price level remains firm. It has provided critical support, and bitcoin has held above since November 18th, apart from briefly falling below on January 13th. The catalyst for a break in either direction could be the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20.
Tracking leverage is also a key component in determining market euphoria or greed. This can be observed through futures open interest (OI).
Open interest refers to the total number of bitcoin futures contracts outstanding in the market. Data from Coinglass shows that OI has been at its lowest level since early November, when Donald Trump won the US election.
As the chart shows, open interest has fallen to 621,000 BTC ($61.6 billion) from 700,000 BTC on December 19. That means the recent price action has been less driven by leverage and more driven by spot.
For a fair analysis, it is important to compare open interest denominated in bitcoin, as the unit remains the same, rather than using the face value, which fluctuates depending on the price of bitcoin.
