Bitcoin retreated to $71,843 on Friday after a third attempt to break $73,000 was met with selling on Thursday, a level the price has now rejected in every rally since the conflict with Iran began in late February.
The withdrawal is modest. Bitcoin is up 7.9% for the week, its strongest weekly performance of the war so far, holding above the 50-day moving average that has risen for the first time since the conflict began. Ether held at $2,189, up 6.6% on the week. Solana’s SOL gained 5.1% to $83.09. XRP added 2.8% to $1.34. Dogecoin rose 2.4% to $0.092. The entire top 10 is in green on the weekly chart for the first time in over a month.
But $73,000 is apparently a wall. The level has capped bitcoin three times since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday; each attempt produced a spike that faded within hours. The pattern is identical to the pre-ceasefire range, only increased. Instead of fluctuating between $65,000 and $73,000, bitcoin now fluctuates between $70,000 and $73,000.
“We will have to wait for the price to rise above $75,000 before we can talk about the market entering an active bullish phase,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, in a note to CoinDesk. He added that bitcoin remains above the 50-day moving average, reinforcing short-term bullish sentiment, but pointed to the repeated rejection of $73,000 as the barrier that must be broken.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz raised the bar, saying the key conditions for bitcoin to resume its uptrend are a consolidation above $74,000 followed by a break above $80,000. “Breaking these levels could trigger a new wave of optimism and restore the uptrend,” he said.
The ceasefire that sparked Tuesday’s demonstration is already wearing thin. Iran accused the United States of violating three clauses of the agreement.
The Strait of Hormuz remains only partially reopened with “technical limitations.” Oil recovered from its 15% drop in a single day and returned to trading above $97.
The Ether configuration is similarly limited by a range. The token retreated 4% from its Wednesday high to $2,189, which Kuptsikevich described as market noise within a consolidation zone of $2,000 to $2,400.
“A breakout beyond this quiet consolidation zone would signal the start of a directional move,” he said.
Outside the majors, Algorand fell 11.4%, Aptos fell 6.1%, and Polkadot lost 6.1%, marking an altcoin divergence that typically appears when traders rotate rather than bring in new capital.
Meanwhile, the fear and greed index surpassed single digits for the first time in more than a month.
If the ceasefire survives through the weekend and the Strait opens further, $73,000 will have its fourth test with momentum behind it. However, if Tehran’s grievances escalate or Trump’s rhetoric changes, a pullback toward $68,000 or $70,000 is the path of least resistance.
