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It hasn’t been a great stretch of baseball for me the last few days. Sometimes appearances are right, but results are wrong. Sure, it’s easy to say that looks are wrong if you have a losing ticket, and there’s a lot of truth.
Yesterday, the Philadelphia Phillies won the first five innings 1-0. I expected Aaron Nola to be worse, but he pitched well, so my game with the Miami Marlins was a loss, but not a terrible look. Today I hope we can get back to normal with the Toronto Blue Jays taking on the Tampa Bay Rays.
Yandy Diaz of the Tampa Bay Rays watches between innings against the Oakland Athletics at the Oakland Coliseum in Oakland, California, on August 20, 2024. (Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
The Blue Jays were inches, minutes, outs, whatever term you want to use, away from winning the World Series last year. This season, it looks like they will have a hard time even making the playoffs.
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They are currently three games under .500, which is a tough look considering they are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Is it a hangover from the World Series or is it something worse for the team? The pitching staff looks a little rough, pitching to a 4.27 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
One of their best starters will take the hill tonight when the Rays turn to Kevin Gausman. For the year, Gausman is 2-2 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He has made three road starts this season, and only one of them was a quality start. He has allowed nine earned runs in 16.2 innings. The Rays have been very strong against the Blue Jays right-hander in the past. In 74 at-bats against Gausman, they are hitting .351. However, they only have four extra-base hits against him.
Tampa Bay is one of those teams that finds ways to win no matter who is on their roster. I have to say I’m a little surprised at how good the team is looking in the first part of the year. They have a 22-12 record and one of the best records in baseball. At home, they are 12-4 and look like one of the most dominant teams in the sport. As a team, they are hitting .253 and the pitching staff is pitching to a 3.67 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
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Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays throws a pitch during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, on August 14, 2022. (Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)
Drew Rasmussen looks to position them for another victory. For the season, the right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He has made two starts at home this year and has gone six innings in both. He has allowed a total of six hits, one walk and one earned run in those 12 innings. Blue Jays hitters haven’t been very good against him, hitting just .200 overall, but they have five extra-base hits from their 12 hits. That means when they make contact, they hit the ball hard.
There are a few things that stand out to me here. First, I think the Rays have the advantage in this game and should take the win. With a -130 line for the Rays, I think we still have value and I’m going to take advantage of them to win. Rasmussen has been very strong. Gausman holds this line closer, but the Blue Jays have been terrible on the road and the Rays have been strong at home.
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Kevin Gausman pitches for the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Rogers Center in Toronto, Ontario on April 7, 2026. (Cole Burston/Getty Images)
Another work that is worth investing a little money on is props. Yandy Díaz has been excellent against Gausman. While he doesn’t have many extra-base hits against him, he does have a .583 average in 12 at-bats. I like that he gets 2+ total bases at +120.
For more information on sports betting and gambling, follow David on X/Twitter: @futuroprez2024




