Currently, Bitcoin is down about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high of about $124,000. Trading near $62,000, it has spent the last five months oscillating between $60,000 and $80,000, leaving the market in a state of apathy.
But a closely watched on-chain metric suggests this period of calm may be setting the stage for a significant move.
Glassnode’s RHODL index, which compares the wealth of long-term holders to that of new market entrants, hit 6.5 in early July, its second-highest reading in Bitcoin history. It has since started to decline and is now below 6. Most importantly, this compression occurs while the price is stagnating, rather than collapsing.
In 2022, the ratio fell along with a violent sell-off. The FTX collapse caused Bitcoin to fall to around $15,000. The situation in 2026 looks different. Bitcoin continues to trade near $60,000, while coins change hands with no signs of panic.
This suggests a gradual transfer of supply from long-term holders, many of whom accumulated throughout 2023 and 2024, to a new cohort of buyers who view current prices as a discount.
