But the regulated US app and the global platform are fundamentally different products. The US version requires full KYC identity verification, is funded through registered futures commission traders rather than crypto wallets, and is settled in US dollars. The global platform, still geo-blocked to US IP addresses, has no identity checks, sits on USDC, and covers a much wider range of markets.
The $571 million figure refers to Americans trading on that global platform through VPNs and existing crypto wallets. Allium tracked wallet behavior rather than IP addresses, which is how a VPN that defeats geoblocking still leaves US fingerprints on the data.
Kalshi’s defining moment
Named the official partner of FIFA’s prediction market midway through the tournament, Kalshi had branding rights, an on-site presence and a media distribution deal with Fox Sports. Remarkably though, user growth was already underway when Kalshi signed its co-branding deal with ADI Predictstreet, the official partner of the FIFA World Cup predictions marketplace, on June 26, just four days before Apptopia’s data was recorded. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have done a lot of advertising during the games, with ads airing during the halftime break as well as so-called hydration breaks during the American broadcasts.
Data from the Apptopia app found that by June 30, Kalshi’s daily active users were 36% above their June 15 level. During the same period, DraftKings fell 36% from its tournament peak, FanDuel fell 41%, and BetMGM and Caesars each fell 32%. Traditional sports betting apps took off early and disappeared, while prediction markets grew steadily throughout.
