- Adata boss predicts memory shortages could persist for the next decade
- Chen says demand for AI still exceeds most industry expectations around the world
- DDR5 prices rose another 7% during July despite previous market optimism
Chen Li-bai, president of memory chip maker ADATA, has dismissed growing market speculation about an imminent collapse in AI-related investment.
Speaking after TSMC’s share price plunged following its recent earnings call, Chen argued that discussions of an AI bubble remain premature at this stage.
He bluntly stated that any real talk about a possible bubble should wait until after 2030.
Global demand continues to exceed market expectations
Global demand for AI computing power, memory chips and electricity continues to exceed what most market analysts had projected.
Meta’s recent decision to lease excess computing resources sparked speculation that cloud providers had overloaded their capacity faster than demand justified.
That interpretation, according to Chen, does not necessarily mean that overall AI demand has fallen below previous projections.
He believes that future AI applications will expand across multiple business models simultaneously, spanning B2B, B2G, B2C, and B2B2C categories.
Chen criticized analysts who judge the broader AI boom using only short-term capital expenditures or utilization figures from a single company.
Such a narrow focus, he warned, amounts to a “pipeline view of heaven” that underestimates long-term demand.
Even as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron look to expand their production capacity, Chen predicted that shortages will continue across the memory sector.
In his opinion, electricity, particularly green electricity, and memory will remain the two most scarce global resources over the next decade.
Manufacturers are now expected to pursue rational and prudent expansion rather than repeating past cycles of disorderly, large-scale increases in capacity.
DDR5 prices already reflect increasing pressure
Real-world price data already supports Chen’s underlying argument about persistent structural shortages rather than temporary market noise.
DDR5 memory kits in Germany increased by 7% in July 2026 alone, reaching new all-time price highs according to 3D Center.
That increase raised average DDR5 costs to 448% above prices recorded in July 2025, representing a more than four-fold increase in a single year.
Much of that increase occurred between October 2025 and January 2026, despite a brief plateau between February and June.
Beyond AI data centers, Chen expects robots, autonomous vehicles, unmanned factories and stores, smart homes, low-orbit satellites, and related ground infrastructure to require additional memory capacity.
He argued that these combined demands cannot be met by the three dominant memory makers, or even the major Chinese producers, in a single decade.
As AI applications spread from centralized data centers to physical devices and infrastructure, memory shortages may become a structural trend rather than a passing cyclical phase.
For consumers and PC makers already facing high component costs, Chen’s outlook offers little indication that relief will come soon.
Via Ctee (originally in Chinese)
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