A renewed debate focuses on the persistent fiscal imbalance between the federation and the provinces
ISLAMABAD:
It was in September 2024 that speculation, sparked by a series of leaks, began to circulate about the federal government’s planning for the 26th Constitutional Amendment. As is often the case, the government publicly dismissed these reports as mere conjecture, while official circles firmly denied that any such measure was being considered.
However, just a few weeks later, not only was the plan publicly acknowledged, but the amendment was also quickly approved by parliament.
Now, once again, similar murmurs are circulating suggesting that the federal government is contemplating another constitutional amendment.
And, as with the 26th and later the 27th Amendments, the pattern seems familiar: official denials on the surface, even as political whispers continue to build up beneath them.
Following the passage of the 26th and 27th Constitutional Amendments, discussion over another possible round of constitutional changes has once again entered Pakistan’s political discourse, with speculations about a 28th constitutional amendment circulating in political and political circles despite official denials that such a process is underway.
At the center of the renewed discussion is Pakistan’s persistent fiscal imbalance between the federation and the provinces, reflected most visibly in the long-running debate over the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award.
As federal spending continues to rise, particularly on debt service and defense, questions about fiscal space and revenue distribution have reemerged as structural pressures rather than isolated political debates.
Analysts note that this recurring debate has less to do with any impending constitutional move and more to do with the limitations inherent in the federal fiscal structure, where constitutionally protected provincial holdings coexist with a financially strained federal government.
Justice Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar clarified that there is “no indication” of a draft 28th amendment, although he noted that any future constitutional initiative would require consultations with coalition partners.
His comments also point to ongoing political discussions on population management, strengthening local governments and long-debated proposals for new provinces such as the Hazara and Saraiki regions.
In contrast, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has stated that the Pakistan People’s Party has not been consulted on any such proposal, reiterating that constitutional amendments cannot be carried out without the agreement of the PPP.
On the other hand, Prime Minister’s aide Rana Sanaullah has acknowledged that discussions are taking place with the PPP within political circles over fiscal constraints and burden sharing between the federation and provinces, driven by rising expenditures on debt servicing and defence.
His comments suggest that, while there is no formal process, structural economic pressures continue to shape policy conversations.
Meanwhile, opposition voices, including the PTI, have sought clarity from the government regarding the nature and scope of any proposed constitutional changes.
PTI Information Secretary Sheikh Waqas Akram, speaking to The Express PAkGazette, said the party’s position reflects its character as a national party. He said the PTI believes in maintaining a balance in the distribution of resources and revising the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award is essential. He added that the Seventh NFC Award, constituted after the 18th Constitutional Amendment, has not been properly reviewed after its term expired and has instead been extended annually through presidential ordinances.
Beyond political statements, any constitutional amendment in Pakistan is ultimately limited by parliamentary arithmetic, which requires a two-thirds majority in both Houses of Parliament.
In the National Assembly this means at least 224 votes, while in the Senate 64 votes are needed. In the current parliamentary setup, no party has this strength independently, making coalition alignment essential for any constitutional change. Even a combined position of the main coalition partners would still require the support of smaller parties and independents to meet the constitutional threshold.
Analyst Mazhar Abbas does not rule out the possibility of a “surprise package” from the government, pointing out that while the debate remains speculative, political negotiation cannot be excluded. It suggests that while a full reversal of the 18th Amendment is unlikely, there may still be room for negotiated adjustments, even if the 28th Amendment remains largely speculative at this stage.
Pildat Chairman Ahmed Bilal Mehboob noted that several elements of the PML-N’s legislative agenda remain outstanding and could resurface in any future constitutional package, particularly those related to strengthening local governments and fiscal arrangements.
He added that proposals linked to NFC adjustments and new provinces remain politically sensitive and would require broad consensus, especially from the PPP, which has historically opposed such changes.
He further noted that the constitutional process of creating new provinces is very complex and requires the support of two-thirds of the relevant provincial assemblies, making it difficult for such initiatives to materialize in the short term.
