bitcoin There is likely more downside ahead before the current bear market runs its course, according to 10x Research founder Markus Thielen.
Thielen’s call focuses on the recent strength of the US dollar, which historically acts as a headwind for bitcoin. The outlook has been bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish turn under new Chairman Kevin Warsh. Markets are increasingly debating whether the Federal Reserve’s next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut, a backdrop that has supported the dollar and weighed on assets.
Still, Thielen doesn’t expect the crisis to last indefinitely.
Three separate indicators (global liquidity trends, the macro calendar, and bitcoin’s seasonal patterns) point to a potential market bottom between late August and October.
A model tracking the rate of change in global liquidity, which Thielen said correctly identified a buying opportunity in March and an exit signal in April, points to the end of August as the next key turning date. Seasonal patterns also suggest that September has historically been a weak month for bitcoin, often followed by stronger performance in October.
