Spot market conditions have improved after months of weakness, with US spot bitcoin ETFs moving from persistent outflows to modest inflows. Still, the report warned that demand has yet to fully recover, and that ETF flows and purchases by corporate bitcoin treasury firms like Strategy (STR) remain well below levels seen earlier this year.
While bitcoin’s rally has helped improve sentiment across the market after a difficult second quarter, Bitfinex warned that the recovery is “not yet healed.”
According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin currently accounts for nearly 67% of cryptocurrency spot trading volume, up from about 50% a year ago. The shift suggests investors continue to prefer bitcoin over smaller tokens, a sign that traders are remaining on the defensive rather than embracing broad risk-taking.
‘Summer dream’
Data from K33 Research shows a similar picture.
Head of research Vetle Lunde said institutional participation has continued to fade, with CME bitcoin futures open interest falling to its lowest level since 2023. The positioning of offshore perpetual futures has remained largely unchanged, indicating that speculative traders have been reluctant to add leverage despite bitcoin’s recent gains.
Spot trading activity has also remained sluggish. Thirty-day bitcoin trading volume is reaching just 62% of its annual average, according to K33, and late July has historically been the weakest period of the year. Average daily spot volume over the past week was about $2.3 billion, remaining near yearly lows even as prices recovered.
K33 described the backdrop as a “typical and promising summer dream.”
