Bitcoin’s rally toward $75,000 hits a supply wall just as institutional demand remains stable.
The bullish movement has been largely driven by macroeconomic flows rather than a broad increase in speculative activity. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have continued to attract steady inflows this month, including about $240 million in a single session following geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, according to market maker Enflux.
That offering helped lift BTC from around $71,000 to around $70,000, even as traditional markets absorbed rising oil prices and changing rate expectations. The pattern, Enflux noted, reflects allocation behavior rather than momentum seeking.
But as Bitcoin rises, the character of the market is beginning to change.
On-chain data suggests supply is starting to surge more aggressively as prices approach a key cost level for short-term holders. Around $76,800 is the so-called realized price for recent buyers, effectively the average entry point for traders who accumulated during the last phase of the drawdown, according to CryptoQuant. In weaker market regimes, that level has often acted as resistance, as previously underwater investors use rallies to break even.
It is worth noting that the same band capped the January bounce almost to the dollar before prices retreated towards $60,000.
CryptoQuant said bitcoin exchange inflows spiked to about 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest level since late December, as prices tested the $75,000 to $76,000 range.
At the same time, the average deposit size rose to about 2.25 BTC, the highest daily reading since mid-2024, suggesting that larger holders are driving the move. The share of large transfers jumped from less than 10% to more than 40% of total inflows in a matter of days, a change that the company says has historically coincided with increased distribution pressure.
That creates a two-sided market.
On the one hand, ETF flows and macroeconomic tailwinds continue to provide a steady source of demand. On the other hand, large holders appear to be taking advantage of the rally to reduce exposure, injecting liquidity into the market as prices approach a widely observed equilibrium zone.
What emerges is less a confrontation than a transfer. Long-term holders appear to be distributing coins directly into ETF demand: the exchange inflows that CryptoQuant flags and the ETF inflows that Enflux tracks are, in fact, two sides of the same transaction, visible in different data sets.
Whether this transfer is clarified depends on whether the new starters are more rigid than those who leave. This is a late cycle pattern and is resolved in two ways.
The result is a market that can rise quickly thanks to capital inflows, but struggles to maintain those gains once supply increases. A sustained break above $70,000 would likely require demand to absorb a growing wave of selling pressure. If not, the balance could tip the other way, writes CryptoQuant, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to a pullback towards the low $70,000s, where the last leg of the rally began.
