The supply of long-term holders (LTH) hit a cyclical low on November 21, the same day as bitcoin It bottomed out around $80,000. With the price of bitcoin now back at $90,000, around 15% higher than the low, the data suggests that most of the spot-driven selling pressure has already spread through the market following the 36% correction between the peak and the low.
This trend has become a key narrative in 2025, as persistent spot sales have been the main reason why Bitcoin has remained virtually flat so far this year.
Long-term holders are defined as entities that have held their coins for at least 155 days. As coins transition from short-term holders to this cohort, the supply of long-term holders naturally increases.
The recent stabilization and initial rally suggest that the wave of distribution from these more experienced holders is subsiding significantly, reducing structural selling pressure in the market.
Since the summer, long-term holders have reduced their holdings from 14,769,512 BTC in July to 14,330,128 BTC in November.
The two previous lows in the supply of long-term holders occurred in April 2024 and March 2025. The April 2024 drop took place shortly after bitcoin hit its all-time high of $73,000, which showed that long-term holders were spreading out strongly. The March 2025 low came during the correction fueled by Trump tariff concerns, which ultimately caused Bitcoin to bottom in April at around $76,000.
Looking back at past cycles, long-term holders’ supply typically experiences sharp declines during the retail-driven mania phases that accompany cycle peaks, most notably in 2017 and 2021.
This cycle, however, presents itself differently. Instead of a dramatic drop followed by an aggressive distribution, the pattern has been more measured, featuring more consistent ebbs and flows. This indicates that the market structure and holder behavior have evolved, which affects the structure of the four-year cycle as the on-chain behavior is different.
