With only about 20% of the $10.6 billion in open interest in-the-money (ITM) and the remaining 80% out-of-the-money (OTM), the market has a strong imbalance that could lead to sharp price swings as participants rush to adjust their positions.
The story doesn’t end there.
Maximum Pain and Put Option Ratio
Another factor pointing to potential volatility is the peak price for the June 26 expiration, which currently sits at $74,000, about 14% above bitcoin’s current spot price of around $65,000.
Maximum pain is the price level at which the largest number of options contracts would expire worthless. The theory suggests that as expiration approaches, the underlying asset (in this case bitcoin) tends to gravitate towards that maximum pain level, as market makers and traders adjust their positions.
While this “maximum pain” effect is widely observed in traditional markets, its reliability in cryptocurrencies is often debated. Still, if the theory holds, bitcoin could see a strong rebound towards $74,000 in the coming days.
Meanwhile, the put-call ratio stands at 0.87, reflecting 87,156 call contracts versus 76,241 put contracts on over $10.6 billion in notional open interest. Although calls still slightly outperform puts, the relatively balanced positioning highlights the growing uncertainty among traders.
Open interest is heavily concentrated on two key moves. The $60,000 put option has approximately $450 million in exposure, making it an important support level, which Bitcoin tested in early June. Meanwhile, the $80,000 call option, with around $406 million in open interest, remains a major upside hurdle.
