The main event of the day is Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s first interest rate decision. No change in rates is expected, meaning markets will be examining the policy statement, economic projections and post-meeting press conference for clues.
Here’s what could spark a positive, risk-on reaction from Bitcoin
The dot plot: This is a graphical representation of where individual Fed members see interest rates heading. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point hike for December. That is the benchmark for reading the chart: if it shows that less than 80% of members project an increase for December, the BTC price could react positively.
Warsh’s take on rates and inflation: Will Trump’s nominee break with market expectations and take a dovish tone, citing recent oil prices and AI-driven disinflation to lay the groundwork for the rate cuts the administration wants? Or will it align with current market prices? In the first case, BTC could react positively again.
