The pressure on cryptocurrencies has become its own. The break below $60,000 reflects continued outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish turn, and a U.S. dollar that rose to a seven-month high, Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email to CoinDesk.
A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced assets, such as bitcoin, more expensive for foreign buyers and tends to draw money away from risky trades.
FxPro also noted a longer-term warning. Bitcoin remains near its 200-week moving average, the average price of the past four years, and a closely watched long-term trend line.
The last three times Bitcoin plunged to that line, the weakness was prolonged rather than brief, lasting about nine months in 2015, six months in 2018, and about six quarters after the 2022 crash. The firm said the pattern points to a crypto winter, a prolonged period of depressed prices, rather than a rapid rebound.
For now, Kuptsikevich sees a band between $61,800 and $62,000 as the next test, a group of resting orders that could push the price higher as short sellers are forced to buy back, or cap the bounce as resistance.
If support is broken, he said, $55,000 is a plausible cycle low. He urged traders to treat risk management as a priority rather than following a direction.
