Bitcoin The recent rise towards $80,000 is showing signs of strain, with low trading volume and thin derivatives activity raising questions about how long-lasting the rally may be.
In a weekly report, 10x head of research Markus Thielen pointed out a disconnect between price action and underlying market participation. “Bitcoin rallied 4.7% over the past week, but the accompanying data tells a cautious story beneath the surface,” he wrote.
Trading volumes have fallen sharply. Bitcoin’s weekly volume was 17% below average, while ether (ETH) volume fell 20%. At the same time, funding rates (a measure of leveraged positioning) remain deeply negative. “Funding rates fell 6.8% to the 3rd percentile and volumes plunged 33% to the 4th percentile,” Thielen said, adding that the bullish move “was driven by spot buying or short covering rather than leveraged long convictions.”
That distinction matters. Spot purchases, often tied to institutional demand, tend to be more stable but less explosive than leveraged trades. It also leaves the market without the kind of momentum typically seen in strong bull runs.
Institutional flows have been a positive point. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of inflows, helping push April’s total inflows to $2.5 billion. Bitcoin dominance has also risen to 60%, indicating that capital is concentrating on the largest cryptocurrency rather than spreading across the entire market.
Still, Thielen warned that the structure of the rebound remains fragile. “The market has moved from a more actively trading environment to one in which participants are largely on the sidelines,” he wrote, describing a “low-funding, low-volume regime that historically reflects hesitancy rather than momentum.”
Options markets reinforce that view. Volatility has fallen to the lower quartile of its historical range and traders are pricing in relatively modest price swings over the next week. “The market is pricing in a relatively calm environment,” the report notes, even as sentiment indicators approach elevated levels.
Ethereum presents a similar picture, although with even weaker participation. Volumes have fallen more than 50% and derivatives positioning shows limited risk appetite. “The volume implosion points to a market where conviction remains low and participants are largely disengaged,” Thielen said.
Despite these signals, the setup is not entirely bearish. By limiting leveraged long positions, the risk of forced liquidations to the downside is reduced. “Short-term risk/reward is asymmetric to the upside if a catalyst emerges,” Thielen wrote.
That catalyst may come from outside the crypto space. The report highlights macroeconomic developments as the key factor that could determine the direction in the coming days. For now, bitcoin’s rally appears intact, but without stronger participation, it may struggle to sustain itself unless broader market conditions provide support.
