ISLAMABAD:
ISLAMABAD: Just a couple of years ago, even a routine protest call by the opposition would cause a stir in government circles. Authorities often deployed containers, imposed restrictions and sealed roads long before protesters arrived, creating an atmosphere that in turn projected the strength of the opposition.
However, Friday’s protest call by opposition parties, including the grand alliance formed by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) and Jamaat-e-Islami, unfolded very differently.
Unlike previous occasions, there were no widespread preventive measures, extraordinary restrictions or visible signs of official alarm. By the end of the day, the opposition’s protest campaign had largely failed without any major mobilization.
Political analysts say the decline in the opposition’s street power has been gradual, but became more pronounced after the November 26, 2024 protest in Islamabad, when PTI protesters faced a forceful state response, arrests and dispersal operations.
Since then, analysts believe the party’s ability to mobilize its supporters has been weakened by legal pressure, organizational disruption and growing fear among its workers and supporters.
Attempts in the following months to revive agitational politics, including leadership reshuffle within the party’s provincial structure, have so far failed to restore the momentum the PTI once enjoyed. Analysts say the opposition’s strategy now appears fragmented and inconsistent.
Political analyst Raza Rumi said the weak mobilization was due to multiple factors and not a single cause. According to him, the repeated cycles of protests, the fear generated by arrests, surveillance and legal repressive measures over the past two years, along with organizational tension within the opposition ranks, have collectively undermined street mobilization.
He said many supporters may still sympathize with the opposition narrative, but remain reluctant to physically participate because of the political and legal costs involved.
“Street politics in Pakistan historically depends not only on public anger but also on organizational coherence, local networks and confidence that mobilization can produce tangible political results,” he said.
Referring specifically to the PTI, Rumi noted that the party had once demonstrated an unparalleled ability to mobilize crowds quickly, often prompting preemptive state action before protests even materialized.
However, he said the crackdown on PTI leaders, workers and organizational structure after May 2023 had significantly reduced its ability to organize open mobilization on the scale previously observed.
“At the same time, the state may believe that the PTI’s ability to disrupt street power has diminished, reducing the urgency of taking aggressive preventive measures,” he said.
He added that the party’s main challenge now was whether it could transform its electoral and digital support into a sustainable political structure on the ground under the prevailing conditions.
Political analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi said the result was not surprising. He commented: “It’s not surprising that people don’t go out,” pointing to two key reasons: economic pressure and fear of the state.
According to Rizvi, the worsening financial difficulties have made it difficult for ordinary citizens, especially daily wage workers, to participate in protests because “if they don’t work, they can’t earn money.”
He further noted that “the State has become very strict,” explaining that while bail in political cases was previously granted in a matter of days, it now “takes months,” creating fear among people about the consequences for themselves and their families.
According to him, “there is a feeling of insecurity, disappointment and state fear, which makes it difficult for people to come out.”
Rizvi also noted that earlier arrests generally applied to ordinary legal provisions where bail was relatively easier, while stricter laws are now increasingly being invoked, making “pretrial detention easier and bail difficult”, something people are well aware of before joining the protests.
Despite the weak street mobilization, however, he maintained that the opposition’s support could still be translated electorally, adding that “people will go out to the elections.”
On the other hand, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, said that “traditionally, no street agitation has been successful in Pakistan unless intelligence agencies covertly support such agitation.”
He also maintained that “any such agitation must be led by credible and trustworthy leadership which is currently unavailable.”
Mehboob maintained that the government had done relatively well in managing economic pressures and said that although inflation continues to harm citizens, it is often explained to the public as a result of “international factors.”
He further stated that “popular support for the federal government and the military has increased” following recent events, including what he described as a “decisive victory over India” and Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts to facilitate dialogue between Iran and the United States, which he said “gave people a sense of positivity.”
He added that “decisive and timely use of force against PTI protesters, arrests and long periods behind bars are some of the factors working against the agitation.”
In his assessment, the opposition’s warnings and statements by leaders such as Mahmood Khan Achakzai were “just political acts to remain relevant and demonstrate political activity.”
