- Trump says the strait would be “completely open” by Friday.
- Iranian media say five ships passed through the US blockade.
- Trump, Vance and Iran, the main negotiator, sign the text electronically.
Stocks mostly rose on Tuesday and oil prices held losses after the previous day’s euphoric rally sparked by the US-Iran peace deal that will reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Eyes are now on developments ahead of Friday’s signing ceremony in Switzerland, which will end more than three months of a war that has sent shock waves through energy markets and sent global inflation soaring.
US President Donald Trump said ships were moving through the strait again and it would be “completely open” on Friday, while Iranian media said three oil tankers and two cargo ships had passed through the area that had been subject to a US naval blockade.
Tehran blocked the waterway after the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28. The United States then blocked shipping to and from Iranian ports.
However, a senior US administration official said Trump, Vice President JD Vance and the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, had already signed the text electronically.
“Investors increasingly value a lasting improvement in the geopolitical context,” wrote Fiona Cincotta of City Index.
“However, with several details still to be finalized, any setback could trigger a strong market reaction. For now, confidence is growing that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and power supplies will normalize.”
He added that “the key question is not whether a deal is reached, but how quickly oil exports and production can recover.”
“Investors will also be attentive to compliance with the agreement and the pace of normalization of supply,” he added.
Oil industry observers warn that market conditions will likely be difficult for a period of weeks or months. Recent data from the US Department of Energy showed that strategic oil reserves sank last week to their lowest level since 1983.
Shipping groups warned on Monday that it was too early to safely resume shipping.
The deal sparked a huge relief rally in global stocks, with the Dow on Wall Street hitting a record high, while crude oil prices plunged nearly five percent.
Optimism remained largely intact on Tuesday, with the two major crude oil contracts barely moving and stocks mostly rising.
Seoul led the gains once again, rising more than 1%, a day after accumulating more than 5%, helped by new developments in the technology sector.
That came after another successful day for Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which jumped nearly 20 percent for the second day in a row after going public on Monday.
Shanghai, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington and Manila also rose, although Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney fell.
There was little reaction to the news that Chinese retail sales fell last month for the first time since 2022.
Investors are closely watching the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting, where it is expected to raise interest rates to a 31-year high later in the day.
