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It’s decision time for many of college basketball’s biggest stars.
The deadline for early entrants to withdraw from the 2026 NBA Draft and retain NCAA eligibility is May 27 at 11:59 p.m. ET, giving those prospects who are “testing the waters” a final window to return to school after going through the pre-draft process. In the weeks leading up to that deadline, events like the NBA Draft Lottery and the NBA Combine will help shape some of the biggest picks of the offseason.
This year, 71 freshmen declared for the draft, which is a notable drop from 106 a year ago and part of a steady decline since 2021. The trend is a direct reflection of the new landscape in college basketball, where NIL opportunities have made returning to school a much more viable option.
With that said, here are the 10 undecided players whose picks will have the biggest impact on the 2026-27 men’s college basketball season.
State: Okorie intends to stay at Stanford if he doesn’t remain in the NBA Draft.
Impact: Okorie was one of the best pure scorers in college basketball last season, leading the ACC with 23.2 points per game as a freshman. If he returns to college, he will look to expand his game beyond scoring and help lead his team to an appearance in the NCAA Tournament.
The transfer portal has been relatively quiet for Stanford. The Cardinal have not added any players and have only lost one key contributor. If Okorie returns, it would largely bring him back after a 20-13 season that ended in the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Crown.
State: Graves entered the transfer portal and declared for the NBA Draft.
Impact: Graves is viewed as a stronger NBA Draft prospect than his production during the 2025-26 college season might suggest. As a freshman at Santa Clara, he came off the bench and averaged 11.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, but his shooting (41.3% from three) and size (6-foot-9) are heavily covered at the next level.
If Graves returns to college, he would likely make the jump to a Power 4 program in search of a starting role and more ball responsibility.
State: Thomas would return to Arkansas if he misses out on the NBA Draft.
Impact: Thomas is a first-round NBA talent who averaged 15.6 points per game as a freshman, although he was often considered secondary to Darius Acuff Jr. in Arkansas’ offense. If he returns, he will likely take on a prominent role for the Razorbacks.
Arkansas is adding freshmen Abdou Toure and Jordan Smith to the backcourt, but lost DJ Wagner and Acuff, positioning Thomas as the preferred option with a young supporting cast around him. That trio could make for a smooth transition as the Razorbacks look to build on their 2026 Sweet 16 run.
State: Tanner would return to Vanderbilt if he does not remain in the NBA Draft.
Impact: Tanner was one of the most improved players in college basketball last season, jumping from 5.7 points and 1.9 assists per game to 19.5 and 5.1, respectively, as a sophomore at Vanderbilt. If he returns for his junior year, he could emerge as one of the best guards in the SEC.
Tanner has yet to advance beyond the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and recently fell to No. 4 seed Nebraska in heartbreaking fashion when its half-court buzzer sounded. His return would give Vanderbilt a strong defense, especially with the additions of Missouri transfer Barrett and Washington State transfer Ace Glass.
State: Blackwell has committed to Duke, but could still remain in the NBA Draft
Impact: Blackwell was one of the nation’s top-scoring guards last season, averaging 19.1 points per game as a junior at Wisconsin. He has since committed to transferring to Duke for his senior year while also testing the waters of the NBA Draft.
If Blackwell returns to college and suits up for the Blue Devils, Duke could boast one of the most loaded backcourts in the country. Blackwell would likely start alongside Cayden Boozer, with Caleb Foster and freshman Deron Rippey Jr. providing depth off the bench.
Another year in college would give Blackwell the opportunity to further develop as a starter, facilitator and defender, which could help improve his value in the NBA. He would also aim to help Duke make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament after Wisconsin’s first-round exit in 2026.
Rueben Chinyelu of the Florida Gators enters the paint against the Vanderbilt Commodores. (Photo by Carly Mackler/Getty Images)
State: Chinyelu would return to Florida if he does not remain in the NBA Draft.
Impact: Chinyelu’s return to Florida would significantly increase the Gators’ chances of returning to the national championship game after failing to advance beyond the first weekend of 2026. Florida already has forwards Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon, but neither provides the same level of defensive presence as Chinyelu.
For a Florida team that was ranked No. 1 in FOX Sports’ Casey Jacobsen Post-Portal Top 25, Chinyelu’s return would only solidify that projection.
State: Johnson would return to Michigan if he does not remain in the NBA Draft.
Impact: Like Mara, Johnson would significantly boost Michigan’s chances of defending its 2026 national title. He was one of the most improved players in college basketball last season, averaging 13.1 points and 7.8 rebounds per game as a sophomore, but he was often just the Wolverines’ third or fourth option.
If he returns and Mara remains in the draft, Johnson could take on a prominent role in the frontcourt. A rotation of Johnson, Thiam and Estrella would be as formidable as any in the country.
State: Mara intends to return to Michigan for his senior season if he does not remain in the NBA Draft.
Impact: Mara’s return to Michigan would put the Wolverines firmly in the national title conversation. He boosted his NBA Draft stock with a standout career, leading Michigan to the 2026 national championship. As the most touted prospect in this group, a return to college would be surprising, but if he returns, Michigan would have an even deeper frontcourt than last season.
The Wolverines added Moustapha Thiam and JP Estrella via the transfer portal and could also welcome Morez Johnson Jr. The ability to rotate those three along with Mara would give Michigan a potentially dominant interior presence.
Jeremy Fears Jr. of the Michigan State Spartans watches during the first half of a game against Michigan. (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
State: Fears intends to return to Michigan State for his redshirt junior season if he does not remain in the NBA Draft.
Impact: The fears decision could make or break the roof of the state of Michigan. Last season, Fears was the only true initiator of the Spartans’ offense. He is a reliable perimeter defender and, in many ways, an extension of head coach Tom Izzo on the court. Fears averaged 15.2 points per game and led the nation with 9.4 assists, earning first-team All-Big Ten honors.
Those aren’t easy numbers to replace and Michigan State hasn’t added any guards through the transfer portal. If Fears remains in the NBA Draft, it would leave a significant hole in the Spartans’ defense.
State: Momcilovic entered the transfer portal and declared for the NBA Draft following his junior season at Iowa State.
Impact: Momcilovic could raise a team’s ceiling to that of a national title contender if he decides to return, as few players possess his unique skill set. The 6-foot-8 forward averaged 16.9 points per game for the Cyclones in 2026 and led the nation in three-point shooting at 48.8%.
Since many major programs have already allocated most of their NIL budgets, the pool of teams that can realistically afford Momcilovic could be limited. But if he decides to return to college, any team he lands on will immediately become a legitimate threat heading into the 2026-27 season.
