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In a World Cup semi-final like this, there is a lot to analyze. I’ve already written about the historical, emotional and psychological aspects of England’s World Cup clash against Argentina, so I also want to dive into the tactical elements of this highly anticipated semi-final.
On paper, and based on what I’ve seen from both sides in this tournament so far, the similarities are arguably stronger than the differences. And while I think the Three Lions’ journey has been tougher (arguably a tougher group, a hostile, altitude-defying victory against Mexico just before facing the heat and humidity of Miami in the middle of Erling Haaland’s Norway), the fact is that very little separates the two sides. They are two giants of the game who have shown signs of their genius and their vulnerable state.
There is also the overall record, as England dominate in this area, having lost just twice in their 14 matches against Argentina. But one of those defeats was in the dramatic 1986 match against Diego Maradona’s “Hand of God” and his “Goal of the Century.” Then there was the 1998 result, which was David Beckham’s sending off after kicking Diego Simeone, which ended in a draw after extra time, but resulted in an England defeat after the penalty shootout.
The fact is that this one is difficult to predict. It is a contradiction due to familiarity due to rivalry, but there is also detachment because they have not faced each other in a World Cup for 24 years.
Let us also remember that England have never faced Lionel Messi, and that is a statistic that lives within itself. Stopping him is betting on your own destiny, so I’m not even trying to tell you how Thomas Tuchel plans to do the near-impossible, especially when England haven’t even tried to do it.
In terms of parallels, let’s focus on the individual side of things and the World Cup superstars, as there is a huge dependency on them. Both have high-octane attacking options that contribute significantly more than anyone else.
For England, Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane have six goals each, marking the first time in men’s World Cup history that a team has had two players score six or more goals in the same tournament. England have scored 13 goals in total, 12 of them from the aforementioned Kane and Bellingham, so the dependence on any of them is monumental.
But the same can be said about Argentina and Lionel Messi. The Albiceleste has 17 goals in the competition, more than any other team and one less than its record of 18, achieved back in 1930. But eight of those 17 aforementioned goals have been the work of Messi. Along with Kylian Mbappé, Messi became the second player on record (since 1966) to score 10 or more goals in more than one World Cup.
But I think, ultimately, this game is decided in two areas: the midfield and the wings. Declan Rice and Eliot Anderson’s battle with the line of Leandro Paredes and Enzo Fernández will test the stealth and momentum of the center, where much of the action will take place.
And outside? Argentina are a very tight team and winger Anthony Gordon, who attempted more dribbles (10) against Norway than any English player since Darius Vassell in 2002 (according to Opta), could have another good day against right-back Nahuel Molina. Even more so on the other side, be it Noni Madueke or his Arsenal team-mate Bukayo Saka against 33-year-old left-back Nicolas Tagliafico. Lionel Scaloni will surely have to find space for defensive midfielder Nico González.
Anthony Gordon will help England attack on the flanks. (Photo by Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images)
England should have most of the possession and I think it is important for Argentina to use it wisely when they have the ball. Argentine goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, excellent with long and direct passes, will be needed once again to find offensive stars such as Julián Álvarez, Messi, Thiago Almada and Lautaro Martínez.
Argentina will need players like Julián Álvarez to continue stepping up to help Lionel Messi. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
But ultimately, we know that this is a game that will far surpass tactics or analytical thinking. This is a match made of emotion and iron determination. There will be situations where the actual game plan can determine a conclusion and I think overall on paper England have enough to win this one.
This is not a coincidence written on paper. It is forged in the field with blood, sweat and tireless effort.
Therefore, from the moment the first whistle sounds, we can throw everything out the window and simply marvel at a true battle where we won’t know the outcome until we discover the answer to the only true question left: who is willing to sacrifice everything for a chance at glory? We’ll have to wait and see.
