Veteran trader Peter Brandt sees bitcoin rebounding to $250,000 in 2029, but only after the market finishes a long bottoming process that could last until September 2026.
That forecast makes sense in the context of bitcoin’s four-year mining reward halving cycle, which has been consistent enough to shape traders’ projections.
Historically, bitcoin bull runs have peaked approximately 16 to 18 months after the quadrennial mining reward halving, before falling into year-long bear markets. New bullish trends then tend to start between 12 and 18 months before the next halving.
That pattern held in the most recent cycle, with bitcoin peaking in October 2025, about 18 months after the April 2024 halving, which reduced the BTC per block issued as a reward to miners from 6.25 to 3.125.
If the cycle holds, the bear market that began then should bottom out about a year later, around October 2026, and then a new uptrend should begin that could peak at $250,000 by the end of 2029, again about 18 months after the April 2028 halving.
“I’m not calling for a bottom until September/October 2026. The recent low doesn’t have to be broken. We could get a rally and then cut sideways to the bottom. The worst case scenario would be a move back to the lower green banana peel, which would be in the 50s, maybe 40s. Then take off for $250,000 and a high in late 2029,” Brandt told CoinDesk in an email.
Peter Brandt is a veteran commodities trader whose career spans nearly five decades, beginning in the 1970s in the futures markets. It began trading traditional assets, such as agricultural commodities, metals and currencies, long before the rise of modern e-commerce or digital assets.
Brandt’s view contrasts with the consensus among crypto analysts, who argue that the downtrend that began with the October peak near $126,000 ended in early February around $60,000, and that the rally since then marks the beginning of a new uptrend.
Bitcoin is up more than 25% to $80,300 since the beginning of February, CoinDesk data shows.
Note that Brandt’s forecast of no bottom until the end of this year does not necessarily imply a deeper downtrend that pushes prices below the February low. As you have noted, prices could move in a choppy pattern of rallies and pullbacks before reaching a bottom.
Brandt, however, stressed that his projection depends entirely on the market continuing its historical pace. If price action deviates, you are prepared to re-evaluate rather than defend a failed thesis.
“As long as the market follows the script, I will stick with my projections. If at any point price discovery goes off script, I will be forced to revise all my ideas. I will NOT be dogmatic about it like some are,” he said.
