Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish estimates that Coinbase processed approximately $152 billion of trading volume during the quarter, well below Street expectations of around $178 billion. He expects adjusted EBITDA to be about 3% below consensus, pointing to weaker blockchain rewards and institutional trading revenue.
Clear Street’s Owen Lau also lowered estimates, projecting about $160 billion in trading volume and $301 million in adjusted EBITDA after weaker-than-expected retail activity.
Benchmark’s Mark Palmer similarly lowered his EBITDA forecast to $377 million, while Compass Point expects revenue to slightly miss consensus but believes EBITDA will be roughly in line with expectations.
Coinbase still ebbs and flows with cryptocurrency trading activity, a dependence that has become more evident over the past year. The company has spent heavily to diversify revenue through stablecoins, derivatives, payments, tokenization, and its Base blockchain. Those businesses continue to grow, but they remain relatively small compared to transaction revenue.
Subscription stability
One area where analysts are more constructive is subscription and services revenue.
This segment includes USDC interest income, staking rewards, custody fees, Coinbase One subscriptions, and institutional services. Because those companies are less tied to daily trading volumes, analysts expect them to provide a cushion against weaker trading revenue.
