bitcoin is trading near $63,000 after falling to around $59,000 earlier this week, and some data points to pain ahead for bulls, with a possible drop to levels last seen in early 2024.
The largest cryptocurrency is now just 9% above its realized price of about $53,600, according to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant. The realized price is the average of the prices at which the coins last moved. When the market price approaches, the average holder barely makes any profits. That level has marked important bear market floors in past cycles.
The problem, however, is demand.
Total bitcoin demand fell by 652,000 BTC last week, the biggest contraction since January 2022, CryptoQuant said. ETF demand is also shrinking at the fastest pace since U.S. bitcoin spot funds debuted in January 2024, showing that the institutional supply that fueled this cycle has been converted into sales.
Sellers crystallized 187,000 BTC losses in the last 30 days. This is painful, but is still well below the peak loss of 400,000 BTC in February and the 1.2 million BTC seen around the bottom of the November 2022 cycle.
