BRUSSELS: Is it Brejoin, Breturn, or perhaps Bre-entry?
A decade after the Brexit referendum, the UK is experiencing a form of “divorce regret” and polls show that a majority of Britons now believe leaving the European Union was a mistake.
It prompts a host of colorful terms to describe a potential fairytale reunion, and a more serious political debate about whether that’s something London should pursue.
Jostling ahead of an expected Labor bid to unseat Prime Minister Keir Starmer has thrown the issue into further focus, after likely rival Andy Burnham spoke of wanting to one day see the UK back in the EU.
But what about the scorned partner? Would the EU take Britain back?
AFP He spoke to half a dozen European diplomats and they were granted anonymity to discuss the matter. All said their countries would be willing, in principle, to remarry.
In a polarized world, one argued, Europe had much to gain by readmitting a nuclear power with one of the world’s largest economies and a seat on the United Nations Security Council.
But everyone also warned that London would have to prove that it was committed to the marriage and its duties of assistance.
“They are not yet conceptually willing to accept the burdens that come with membership,” said a second diplomat.
Some went further, suggesting the 27-nation bloc had managed to do more without a difficult ex with a penchant for special requests.
“Now things are easier,” said another diplomat. “We no longer have to constantly work to avoid opting out of each file. There is more cohesion.”
New EU, old UK
Britain never joined the euro or the Schengen free movement area, and had notoriously negotiated a refund of its contributions to the common budget, all of which are now seen as signs of half-hearted Europeanism.
One of the diplomats mused, half-jokingly, that perhaps the British were missed the most because of their excellent command of English, leaving EU documents riddled with stilted euro language.
Others have fonder memories: Sebastien Maillard of the British think tank Chatham House said that countries that lean toward liberalism in economics or Atlanticism in geopolitics miss Britain as a counterweight to France’s sovereigntist instincts.
But from “strategic autonomy” to “European preference” and joint borrowing, the bloc has lately adopted policies championed by Paris that might have been a tough sell in London.
“The UK doesn’t really understand how much the EU has changed in the last 10 years,” Maillard said.
The new direction was largely due to external factors: a pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the rise of China and US President Donald Trump.
But Brexit also sharpened the bloc’s focus, showing skeptics in its ranks that leaving was a bad idea, one diplomat said.
“It has led to a more mature debate about the EU,” he said, noting that right-wing populists across Europe were no longer advocating for their countries to leave the bloc.
“It’s no longer a question of ‘do we want to be in or out of the EU?’, but ‘what kind of EU do we want to be in?'”
Smaller fish to fry
Would Britain really want to return to the club as it is now?
The political situation in the island nation, with the far-right, anti-EU Reform party in the UK ranking high in the polls, calls for caution.
European nations are wary of forging closer ties now, only to possibly have to undo them later.
Furthermore, some pointed out that it would be almost unthinkable to allow Britain to re-enter under its previous special conditions.
Meanwhile, protracted negotiations to ease the pain of divorce are proving difficult, raising questions about closer rapprochement and renewed EU complaints about British “cherry-picking,” a leitmotif of the Brexit era.
Talks for London to agree to an EU defense plan collapsed over the price for Britain.
And a supposed proposal by the United Kingdom to join the single market for goods, but not for the free movement of capital, services and people, received little attention in Brussels, where the majority insists on a global agreement or nothing.
Progress has been made in other areas.
London and Brussels hope to present several agreements at a summit on July 22, specifically on food and animal safety standards, a youth mobility plan and linking their emissions trading systems.
That’s not the stuff of dreams, those who long for a romantic Bre-union might say, but for now, baby steps may have to suffice.
