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“Bear bets” are real bets that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
The Belmont Stakes is finally here.
The 158th Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course due to ongoing renovations at the iconic Belmont Park.
Post time is set for 7:04 pm ET on Saturday, June 6 and the race will air on FOX.
I fully believe that another memorable weekend awaits us. And when it comes to betting on the race, I’ve got you covered.
So let’s move on to my betting card and my thoughts on this Saturday’s big race.
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1. Vitruvian Man: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Coach: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
This is the longest opportunity on the board for a reason. They were nowhere to be found against So Happy and Potente in the Santa Anita Derby and they will be nowhere to be found here. But I’m sure the connections will have a good time.
2. Power change: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Coach: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
He posted a strong second to Emerging Market in his debut and then unsurprisingly fell back in his second start, which came in the Tampa Bay Derby. A fight to break the maiden on a Derby weekend with even money has resulted in Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher entering him here. While I don’t think he can win, it absolutely affects the flow of the race. He will be one of the few horses – Growth Equity most likely the other – in the lead. The faster the pace, the more it will help Repole’s other entrant, ML favorite Renegade. Expect him to stay for 3/4 or a mile and then the big ones will catch him.
3. Chief Wallabee: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Coach: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
I thought this was the best 3-year-old in the country entering the Derby and a bad trip in the Derby, despite adding blinders, resulted in a 4th place finish. I still think this could be a potential monster in the second half of the year, but at some point it has to win. He finished behind Constitution in both starts in Florida. Despite having a large position advantage in the derby, he finished behind Renegade there. Is there a chance that Junior Alvarado could get you a little closer to the lead if the pace turns out to be easy? You should have a much easier and cleaner ride here with only nine horses in the field. But I do worry that things won’t turn out perfectly. Is he the type of horse where, every time, something goes a little wrong and the result is another inferior result? This race will say a lot about what kind of horse the Boss is now and what he can become in the future.
4. Renegade: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Coach: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
He ran the best race in the Derby but was beaten by Golden Tempo. I didn’t think he had a chance from the sidelines, but Irad Ortiz Jr. did an incredible job of setting up a trip and getting him outside and almost being the ultimate beneficiary of the pace collapse. He’s the legitimate favorite here, but like Golden Tempo, will he be hampered by the likely slower fractions? I think he has a quicker foot turn than Golden Tempo, as we saw in the Arkansas Derby and the Remsen. Therefore, you might have a slightly better chance of winning without missing a beat. Both the jockey and the trainer know how to win this race. He has the recently preferred path to Belmont success: run in the Derby, skip the Preakness and then return five weeks later in the Belmont. There are people who think that the horse cannot lose on Saturday. I won’t go that far, but I think it’s very likely that I’ll run on the Exacta and build some entries based on that thought.
5. Otinho: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Coach: Chad Brown
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Someone had to be second to More Ado About Nothing in the Blue Grass. And “Etiquette, you are, Ottinho.” He hasn’t run a race close enough to compete for a win here, and Chad Brown knows he has to take a big step forward, but can he work his way up the track to finish third or fourth, which is a nice payday? Unlikely, but possible.
6. Growth equity: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Coach: Chad Brown
Jockey: manny franco
His numbers have been on the right track each outing, but he’s still looking to rank a little below the Renegade, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Commandment group. I’m not sure I can handle the Rudy Rodriguez Withers winner. Talk to me, Jimmy’s ease in a five-horse Peter Pan means he’s a real contender here. I think he’s kind of a de facto rabbit for Klaravich’s other horse, Emerging Market. I expect him to be ahead of the game, pushing the pace set by Powershift inside him and making sure Emerging Market isn’t too close to a fast pace, like it was in the Derby. He won’t win, but he’ll have a lot to say about who will.
7. Commandment: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Coach: Brad Cox
Jockey: Juan Velazquez
He never really had a good chance in the derby as he was roughed up early on and then left out. But I don’t know why I have a negative view of its possibilities. John Velázquez is his fourth different jockey in four races. Did that hat trick of Florida wins in the Mucho Macho Man, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby take too much away from you? Will his running style and race flow allow him to get there with his late, routine running style? His two victories in stakes races were by a nose and a neck. If you still believe, you’ll get a price you could only dream of after he reeled off five straight wins before the Derby.
8. Emerging market: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Coach: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
This is the one that catches my attention. Before the Derby, I felt like either he or Chief Wallabee would win the Belmont, and after they finished fourth and 10th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness to score, I feel even better about my thought process. I expected Emerging Market to run better than he did in the Derby, but I also didn’t take into account that he got too close to a fast pace, got stuck, and then lost a shoe during the course of the race. But it’s the Derby and those things happen. I expect a much better ride here and we should get a price relatively close to the 6-1 ML. It would be fitting if Saratoga native Chad Brown took a win at Belmont in the final edition of the race here in Spa. One of them and my first pick just off the beat.
9. Golden time: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Coach: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
This is a fantastic story, as Cherie DeVaux became the first trainer to win the Derby and is now looking to become the second trainer in four years to win the Belmont Stakes. He has improved in terms of figure in his five starts, but I still think he is at the mercy of the pace in front of him. He captured fast fractions in the Derby and he, Ocelli and Renegade benefited from it, taking the top three spots in the trifecta. You probably won’t get the same setup on Saturday as you would on Derby Day. And while there’s no reason to expect him not to run his race, I think a win is a little out of reach. I’ll use the stretcher underneath.
Suggested Ways to Bet on the Belmont (Adjust your dollar amounts according to your budget)
$10 Exacta 8/4-3 key box $40
$5 Exacta key box 8/7-9 $20
$10 Winning Place 8 $10
$2 Trifecta 8/3-4/2-3-4-7-9 $16
$2 Trifecta 3-4/8/2-3-4-7-9 $16
$1 Trifecta 8/2-3-4-7-9/3-4 $8
Historical notes
If a horse other than Golden Tempo wins the Belmont Stakes, it will mean that 23 different horses will have won the last 24 Triple Crown races. Sovereignty last year would be the only horse in that span to win multiple Triple Crown races in that span (2019-present).
Only one of the last 11 Triple Crown races has been won by the favorite (Preakness Journalism 2025). Seven of the last 11 were won by the fourth option or more.
If Golden Tempo fails to finish in the money, it will be the first time since 2010 that the favorite has finished in the money in all three Triple Crown races. In 2010, Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky finished sixth, Preakness favorite Super Saver finished eighth and Belmont favorite Ice Box finished ninth. 2026 Derby favorite Further Ado finished 11th and Preakness favorite Taj Mahal finished 10th. The last Belmont favorite to finish out of the money was Exaggerator, who finished 11th in 2016.
Four of the last six Belmont runners-up were trained by Todd Pletcher (2024 Mainframe, 2023 Forte, 2022 Nest, 2020 Dr. Post). In that time, Pletcher also won the 2022 Belmont with Mo Donegal.
Renegade and Powershift continue the trend of Todd Pletcher’s Belmont Stakes starters having just one word in their name. Each of his final eight Belmont racers had just one word: 2026 Renegade, 2026 Powershift, 2025 Uncaged, 2025 Crudo, 2024 Mindframe, 2024 Antiquarian, 2024 Protective and 2023 Forte.
None of Brad Cox’s last 16 Triple Crown starters have finished better than third (2024 Preakness Catching Freedom and 2023 Derby Angel of Empire). The last time Cox had a horse achieve the exacta in a Triple Crown race was in 2021, when Essential Quality won the Belmont.
Belmont’s four runners trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. ran first (2022 Mo Donegal) or second (2024 Mindframe, 2023 Forte, 2020 Dr. Post). Irad has the mount in Renegade Saturday.
