Bitcoin The price action indicates that the momentum from headlines about the US-Iran ceasefire is fading and markets are looking for substantial developments that could ease the stress generated by the war across the global economy.
The largest cryptocurrency briefly topped $76,000 early today, only to fall back into a repeat of Tuesday’s choppy pattern. The stagnation follows a 10% increase, driven mainly by news of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States a week ago.
However, while optimism remains and President Donald Trump suggests the conflict is coming to an end, progress in negotiations to restore oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck that accounted for 20% of global flows before the war began, remains limited.
“A ceasefire extension alone is no longer enough. Markets need tangible progress, such as restoration of energy flows, compression of crude oil premiums and clearer disinflation,” QCP Capital, one of the world’s largest digital asset market makers, said in an email.
“Until then, this remains a story of partial normalization and not full repair. Constructive, but still not comfortable.”
Traders should keep an eye on oil prices as the first signs of normalization are likely to be evident in energy markets. WTI recently traded near the weekly low of $87.50 and Brent around $90, a level it has held since April 8.
The continued decline in the bitcoin and ether 30-day implied volatility indices suggests that traders expect material progress soon.
Meanwhile, solana (SOL) and It could see increased volatility as open futures contracts linked to these tokens have risen to multi-week highs. The increases point to growing demand for leveraged exposure, which often amplifies price swings through liquidations and increased market turbulence.
“Solana has significantly outperformed the market over the past day, attempting to bounce off an important long-term support line, but failing to do so for over two months,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email. “We will only be able to declare a victory for the bulls once it has consolidated above the $105 level, at which point we can talk about a performance above the 200-week moving average.”
In traditional markets, the MOVE index, which measures the volatility of US Treasuries, has fallen to 65%, reversing the war-induced peak of 115% in March. This is bullish for risk assets as stability in the US bond market, which underpins global finances, helps ease credit and financial conditions. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today. For a complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What is trend?
Today’s sign
The chart shows bitcoin’s hourly price action in candlestick format since March 31, highlighting a steady upward trajectory that has taken the asset from around $65,700 to around $76,000. The chart looks bullish with consistently higher lows, but there is a problem.
Within this uptrend, the price briefly surpassed $76,000 at least twice, with both attempts failing to produce a decisive breakout. From a technical analysis perspective, this indicates a double top pattern developing, where two peaks form near the same level, indicating a possible exhaustion of the bullish momentum.
If the price falls below $73,300, the low formed between the two peaks, the double top pattern would be confirmed, suggesting room for a deeper drop to $70,000.
Conversely, a sustained move above $76,000 could attract more traders and strengthen the case for a rally to $88,000.
