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I had a play last night in the Royals and Tigers game and, to spoil any surprises, it was a loser. I picked the Royals at +170 mainly because I felt the line was off. I still cashed the under, but I hope anyone who is serious about sports betting reads that article. Despite being a loss, I loved the work. There was a lot of courage for the Royals, who lost 4-3. There are times when you need to shoot, and this one rewarded me mentally, because I feel like at least I put myself in the right place to make money. I hope to get the money, physically, in today’s game between the Astros and the White Sox.
The Houston Astros are still holding their own, but the question of whether they will buy, sell or hold tight over the next week must be considered. For the season, they are four games under .500, but are just two games behind the American League West division. That’s not exactly the position you should be in if you plan to throw in the towel. Their best player, Yordan Alvarez, is having an MVP season, yet another reason to keep pushing and see if they can make the postseason.
Houston Astros’ Yordan Alvarez, right, hits a three-run home run during the fifth inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics, Tuesday, July 6, 2021, in Houston.
They already traded one of their starters, but I don’t think that was a sign that the team was trying to give up. I think it was more about his roster and salary than anything else. Today they will start Spencer Arrighetti on the mound. For the season, Arrighetti is 7-5 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He has been worse on the road with a 5.52 ERA. He has also allowed eight earned runs in his last two road starts. However, I think he could be emerging from the problems he had in June. In May, he had a 0.93 ERA and in June he had a 9.00 ERA. So far in three starts, he has allowed eight earned runs in four innings and two earned runs in 11 innings covering two starts.
The Chicago White Sox were expected to be sellers, but this team has some heart and appears to be rebuilding things. Part of the reason sports are so fun is teams like the White Sox. A team that no one expected anything from this year, and they have turned it around to be in the playoff race. There’s still a long way to go, and an injury could derail everything, but you have to feel solid about how they’ve played and looked if you’re a Sox fan.
Tristan Peters, No. 29, of the Chicago White Sox runs to third base for a triple against the A’s at Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois, on July 10, 2026. (Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)
One of the brightest spots on this squad has been today’s starter, Davis Martin. For the season, Martin is 9-5 on the year with a 3.31 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Martin has been elite at Guaranteed Rate Field this season with a 1.80 ERA. He has only allowed nine earned runs at home in 45 innings. And five of those earned runs came in the last start against the Red Sox. Perhaps most impressive is that he has allowed just 33 walks all year, and only 10 have come at home.
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Baseball is a sport where you usually have the opportunity to follow the movements of lines and sharp objects quite confidently. There aren’t many public bettors betting on teams. Hard money tends to move these lines, and the line is moving in the Astros’ favor. However, the sharp ones don’t always win either. There is also a move where they will bet on one side, only to lower the line and get more money on the opposite side. I could see that happening here.
Chicago White Sox manager Will Venable meets on the mound with catcher Drew Romo, shortstop Colson Montgomery, first baseman Munetaka Murakami and second baseman Chase Meidroth during an MLB game at Rate Field in Chicago on May 13, 2026. (Patrick Gorski/Icon Sportswire)
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If you don’t understand what that means, don’t worry. Basically, I think the White Sox are going to win this game. Martin is a better bowler, in better shape and more reliable as a home opener. Arrighetti is bad as a visitor and something has been wrong with him since June. The Sharps may have seen some good value in the Astros, but now that the line is much lower, I think the Sox are the right side and could see money invested in them late. Give me the White Sox on the money line.
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For more information on sports betting and gambling, follow David on X/Twitter: @futuroprez2024
